Seattle Mariners

So, as it stands, the MLB season is almost 1/4th of the way done, and the Mariners are over 11 games out of first place in the AL West. The offseason was highlighted by the loss of Mike Cameron and the acquisition of Raul Ibanez. With this switch, the outfield defense was decreased, and it has since been decreased further as manager Bob Melvin chooses to play Randy Winn in center despite Ichiro!'s overall advantage, including arm strength and speed. In addition, the only decent pitcher has been Freddy Garcia, who has gotten very little run support (more on this in a second). The bullpen has been scattered and inconsistent, with Rafael Soriano transitioning back and forth, to and from the disabled list and AAA Tacoma. Eddie Guardado has publicly said that he'd rather have signed elsewhere, and there aren't any other pitchers with ERAs under 3.00 or WHIPs below 1.15, other than Guardado and Garcia.

The offense has been abysmal. They are last in the majors in HR's, third to last in runs (in a division with the two top run scoring teams, Anaheim and Texas), third to last in SLG, third to last in OPS, and fifth to last in total bases. To say the least, they aren't hitting well.

The GM doesn't have a plan for the team, or at least isn't using one. The manager doesn't seem to understand fundamental principles of offense:
"A lot of times a home run is actually a rally killer in that situation," Mariners manager Bob Melvin said.

So, what is left for Mariners fans? Not too much. I'd like to consider myself one of the more faithful Mariners fans out there, witness the large logo on the main wall of my bedroom. Save for the lifers, who grew up and/or live in Seattle, I can probably match most college student age fans in terms of knowledge and committment.

But I'm giving up on this year. You heard me. Giving up. I can't see them doing anything to improve, let alone winning enough to contend for the playoffs. Lets say they need to win 85 games total to make the playoffs, which is a conservative estimate to begin with. To win 85 games, they would have to go 85-77, or 72-53 the rest of the way. That is a winning percentage of 0.576 (equivalent to a 93 win team over the course of a season), .225 higher than their current winning percentage. This wouldn't be unheard of, as the team as won 93 games the past few years, but that was a much different team -- different (younger) starting roster, different GM, and a different coach (mostly). So, barring the acquisition of Carlos Beltran, the reemergence of Soriano as a solid long reliever (or better yet, a 3rd or 4th starter!), and a strong acquisition for the rotation, the Mariners are pretty much out of it for this year.

So, I guess it is okay to give up this year, right? We can always hope that next year is going to be better. Well, without a really plan from Bavasi, and without Melvin understanding the fundamental elements at play on the field, the Mariners will fail to contend. Let's all hope that somebody gets through to these guys at some point soon.

So if I'm not rooting for the Mariners this year, who will I root for? Stay tuned...